10 Day Powder Forecast

Posted By: The Ski Channel on December 13, 2011 12:21 am

Current storm system has deposited very heavy snows in the Flagstaff region and generally 6-8 inches in the San Juan’s overnight of which Wolf Creek and Silverton tied for storm totals as of 6 AM (6 inches).  Taos also reported around 6 inches this morning as temperatures have warmed considerably overnight creating the nasty “upside down” snow density.  Avalanche danger will be very high today with the temperature changes as well as increasing snow later this afternoon and tonight.

Snow will pick up again in the Southern Colorado San Juan’s tonight as my chase might take off towards Wolf Creek with ticket prices only $33 bucks on Wednesday!  Snow will also intensify over Silverton Mountain with my early guess at additional amounts in the 4-9 inch range for Wednesday morning.  Wednesday or Thursday could be a great day there! My gut is telling me that Wolf Creek will come in slightly less in amounts than Silverton but both will recieve decent late afternoon to early Wednesday snows.

Wednesday:  Snow tapers off in the San Juan’s in the early morning as Colrado’s central mountains pick up 2-5 inches during the day. The winds shift to the West helping areas like Aspen, Beaver Creek receive a quick 12 hour shot of light to moderate snow before exiting the State Wednesday night. Other areas along I-70 in Colorado will see snow Wednesday but fairly light amounts (2-5). Steamboat might reap some benefits with this pattern as well (3-5). 

Thursday/Friday- Storm #2:    The models are all showing different solutions but my belief is that a moderate storm will impact the Northwest Cascades 4-9 inches on Wednesday night with that storm splitting apart sending some energy to Southern CA and the Baja and another piece brushing Northern Utah, Central Nevada, and eventually Southern Utah (Brian Head could see 3-6), which unfortunately will deliver only Sub Powder Alert amounts to the Wasatch in the 2-4 inch range. 

Weekend?  The southern piece of energy that headed to Mexico swings back through the 4 corners of the Southwest on Sunday/Monday with a good chance of 3-7 inches by Monday morning over New Mexico, Southern Colorado, and Arizona.  Most of the energy might stay further South than our current storm so don’t expect epic amounts North of the Colorado/New Mexico border.   The main energy will start late Saturday night and continue into Monday Morning. Areas that are favored will be Wolf CreekTaosSilverton with an emphasis over New Mexico.

Long Range:  Pattern continues to bring moderate storms periodically to the Northwest and keep the Rockies on the drier side until perhaps just after XMAS.  I still see some hope on the horizon however it might not come until Santa has stuffed the chimney with your new skis and boards!  If you really demand the DEEP head up to Alyeska Alaska where they just picked up 55 inches in the past 2 days! 

- Powderchaser Steve